The US population has grown every year since the founding of the country. While that trend continued, in 2021 the US population grew by only 0.1 %, which was the lowest in history. Many factors contributed this record slow growth. In the short term, the COVID-19 pandemic continued to impact Americans. Along with the higher death rates, it also greatly reduced immigration for other countries. Couple those with the long term decline in American birth rates and the result is an almost flat US population.
Bleak American Future?
Is this unprecedented slowdown of the US population the result of a perfect storm of biology, complacent leadership, and economics? It’s true that many post-industrial cultures experience declining birth rates. I read an article that somewhat tongue-in-cheek suggested that based on birth rates in ~700 years the Japanese will die out. Of course, that just illustrates the ridiculousness of assuming things remain the same forever. If there’s one thing we should learn from history, it’s that change is inevitable and somewhat unpredictable.
Beware of Statistics and Averages
“There three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics” This quote is often attributed to Mark Twain. There’s no doubt that Twain helped popularize the saying, but there’s no proof that he’s the originator. Twain attributed the quote to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, but there’s no evidence Disraeli ever said it. As an aside, the mangling of derailleur gears by one of Cream’s roadies – he said Disraeli Gears – led to the name of their second studio album.
Back to Our Regular Program
It’s true that the overall US population grew at the slowest rate ever recorded, that rate represents a statistical average. Averages can be valuable, but they often hide meaningful differences. This is especially true in a country as large and varied as the US. While their questionnaire may be annoying, the data collected US Census Bureau illustrates that population growth varies greatly within the US. That brings us to our featured map, which comes courtesy of the Census Bureau and the Tax Foundation.
I happen to live in NY, the state with the biggest percentage decline. The pandemic certainly hit NY harder than most. In addition to excess deaths, it also cut foreign immigration, where NY typically does well. No doubt the weather and taxes also contribute to people leaving NY. Those two factors also help explain some of the bigger winners.
As for surprises, Hawaii being the third biggest loser and Delaware being one of the winners struck me as odd. What surprised you the most?
As always thanks for reading.
Armen
Note to Pay the Bills: While there’s not demographic analysis in the story, the Misaligned series is set in upstate NY where the weather does play an important role in Book #1, Penny Preston and the Raven’s Talisman. If you’ve ever wondered how to mix theoretical physics and Welsh mythology in a YA fantasty story, you can learn more here or find links to purchase books here.
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